Academy Award Predictions 2013
In around about 12 hours, we will know who the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences have decided to honour for the film year of 2012.
Here is my best stab in the dark at who/what the hell is going to be nominated - it will be very interesting to say the least!
What a clusterfuck. This business of having anywhere from 6 - 10 nominees means its anyone's guess, but in a year full of films that deserve to be recognised, you could expand the roster to 15 and still have no complaints! As it stands, I believe there will be ten nominees tomorrow regardless, as there are most definitely ten nominees which will have enough passionate people giving them no. 1 votes! So I predict the nominees will be: (ranked by likelihood of winning)
Zero Dark Thirty
Life of Pi
Silver Linings Playbook
Beasts of the Southern Wild
ALT: Moonrise Kingdom/The Master
The top seven are locked and the bottom three are anyone's guess, but a beloved indie, an auteur's piece and a billion-dollar grossing James Bond - on its 50th anniversary? Don't underestimate the academy's desire for ratings.
Ben Affleck - ARGO
Kathryn Bigelow - Zero Dark Thirty
Stephen Spielberg - Lincoln
Ang Lee - Life of Pi
Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained
ALT: Michael Haneke - Amour /Tom Hooper - Les Miserables
That DGA nod be damned, I don't believe they'll hand Tom Hooper another nod so soon into his career, this is Tarantino's party but look out for Haneke to capitalise on years of goodwill/serious overdue career nomination.
Six men, five slots, unless you count Richard Gere who no one really is!
Daniel Day Lewis - Lincoln
Hugh Jackman - Les Miserables
John Hawkes - The Sessions
Denzel Washington - Flight
Joaquin Phoenix - The Master
ALT: Bradley Cooper - Silver Linings Playbook
Is it just me? I can't for the life of me see Bradley Cooper as an Oscar nominee yet, Silver Linings be damned. Joaquin is amazing and deserves the nomination, regardless of his comments, hopefully the Academy can overlook it and focus on the performance as its undeniable Phoenix has a point, but then they are known to be fickle (understatement).
That word again - clusterfuck. I will be so disappointed if they nominate Helen Mirren, not in that she's a bad actress but I don't want her begetting any bad will for being nominated in the face of other, less obvious, subtle performances this year that SO deserve a nomination - I'm not as strong on Watts as everyone else is either - so we'll see.
Jennifer Lawrence - Silver Linings Playbook
Emmaunelle Riva - Amour
Naomi Watts - The Impossible
Quvenzhane Wallis - Beasts of the Southern Wild
ALT: Marion Cotillard - Rust & Bone / Helen Mirren - Hitchcock
I just don't think the academy would be able to ignore the symmetry of having the youngest and oldest nominees in this category ever! Really, I don't, and therefore poor Marion will get sacrificed in the slaughter as two foreign language performances in one category hasn't been seen in 40 years.
Best Supporting Actor:
What a packed category, I can't even begin - do the Django boys cancel each other? Does Robert De Niro get a pass again? Will Matthew McConaughey make it in? Imagine which clip they'd use from Magic Mike!
Tommy Lee Jones - Lincoln
Phillip Seymour Hoffman - The Master
Alan Arkin - Argo
Leonardo di Caprio - Django Unchained
Javier Bardem - Skyfall
ALT: Christoph Waltz - Django Unchained/Robert de Niro - Silver Linings Playbook
Again with my no guts/no glory Skyfall prediction. They owe Leo an apology/will feel like they do after last year and I don't see them handing the free pass to de Niro just yet - that Globes snub was telling.
Best Supporting Actress:
Hathaway, Field, Hunt - Beyond that, its anyone's guess!
Anne Hathaway - Les Miserables
Sally Field - Lincoln
Helen Hunt - The Sessions
Nicole Kidman - The Paperboy
Amy Adams - The Master
ALT - Ann Dowd - Compliance / Maggie Smith - The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Nicole has been working her ass off for this film and wants that nomination. Amy Adams - Meh, like Helen Mirren I don't want her to get the nomination purely because of the backlash - I'd much rather Maggie got it (duh) but that BAFTA snub was telling while Ann Dowd should have saved the "I paid for it" sob story, let the work do the talking. Will we see Judi Dench/Jennifer Ehle capitalise on the confusion? Will Helen Hunt be bumped to lead (something tells me this is going to happen) WHO THE HELL KNOWS.
As for everything else, that's anyone's guess - not mine. Follow me at Gold Derby to see what else I predicted, I just wanted to give the big categories my admittedly, naive opinion!
UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.